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- March 28, 2014 at 12:51 pm
Nomograms Can Predict Outcome of Therapeutic Lymphadenectomy in Late-Stage Melanoma
Research · March 10, 2014TAKE-HOME MESSAGE
- In this study, a mathematical model was developed to predict the response of patients diagnosed with stage IIIB and IIIC melanoma to therapeutic lymph node dissection. Extracapsular extension and nodular pathology subtypes were good predictors for 2-year recurrence incidence. Age, number of positive lymph nodes, and extracapsular extension were predictors for overall survival.
- This mathematical model provides assistance in predicting outcomes in patients with late-stage melanoma and clinically involved lymph nodes.
– Chris Tully, MD
ABSTRACT
The publisher has made this article available for free until 4/9/2014 12:00:00 AM .
Background
Current staging algorithms in melanoma patients undergoing therapeutic lymph node dissection (LND) fail to accurately distinguish long-term survivors from those at risk of rapid relapse. Our goal was to establish and validate nomograms for predicting both recurrence and survival after LND.
Methods
A prospective cohort of stage IIIB and IIIC melanoma patients was ascertained from a tertiary hospital in Brisbane, Australia. Failure-time multivariate analysis identified key factors that, in adjusted combinations, generated nomograms to predict 2-year recurrence and 5-year melanoma-specific survival. The predictive value of these nomograms was further validated in a patient cohort from Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Results
In 494 Australian patients, number of positive lymph nodes, extra-capsular extension and nodular histopathological subtype were the main independent predictors of 2-year recurrence while age, number of positive nodes and extra-capsular extension were the independent predictors of survival. Predictive value was confirmed in The Netherlands cohort of 331 patients. The nomograms were able to classify patients according to their 2-year recurrence and 5-year survival rates even within each stage III sub-class.
Conclusions
Models that include extra-capsular extension predict outcomes in patients with clinically involved lymph nodes. This tool may help tailor treatment and monitoring of this group of patients.
European Journal of CancerNomograms to Predict Recurrence and Survival in Stage IIIB and IIIC Melanoma After Therapeutic Lymphadenectomy
Eur. J. Cancer 2014 Mar 10;[EPub Ahead of Print], K Khosrotehrani
Tagged: cutaneous melanoma
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