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question about recurrence odds

Forums General Melanoma Community question about recurrence odds

  • Post
    samcanada
    Participant

      My husband just had his first visit with an oncologist last week during which she informed us that he has a 40% chance of recurrence.

      My question is, and I know this may sound silly, does that mean that he has a 60% chance of being just fine and this being gone?

      I was under the impression that is was just a matter of time before this showed up again, that it was pretty much a done deal if you will. Every story I have read seems to point to the fact that it will definately come back so I'm not sure what to believe?

      My husband just had his first visit with an oncologist last week during which she informed us that he has a 40% chance of recurrence.

      My question is, and I know this may sound silly, does that mean that he has a 60% chance of being just fine and this being gone?

      I was under the impression that is was just a matter of time before this showed up again, that it was pretty much a done deal if you will. Every story I have read seems to point to the fact that it will definately come back so I'm not sure what to believe?

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    • Replies
        Janner
        Participant

          "Every story you read"….  The people who don't recur don't have a lot of reason to write stories.  They are off living their lives.  At every stage, there are individuals who NEVER recur so it "isn't just a matter of time" with your husband.  He may indeed be in the group that never recurs and he is done with melanoma forever.  When you read stories on BBs like these, you find mostly newly diagnosed or people actively fighting disease (or some long time hangers-on who stick around to give hope/info to others).  What you don't tend to see are the succes stories.  After a period of time, they move on having no reason to actively visit sites like this.

          Best wishes,

          Janner

          Janner
          Participant

            "Every story you read"….  The people who don't recur don't have a lot of reason to write stories.  They are off living their lives.  At every stage, there are individuals who NEVER recur so it "isn't just a matter of time" with your husband.  He may indeed be in the group that never recurs and he is done with melanoma forever.  When you read stories on BBs like these, you find mostly newly diagnosed or people actively fighting disease (or some long time hangers-on who stick around to give hope/info to others).  What you don't tend to see are the succes stories.  After a period of time, they move on having no reason to actively visit sites like this.

            Best wishes,

            Janner

            Janner
            Participant

              "Every story you read"….  The people who don't recur don't have a lot of reason to write stories.  They are off living their lives.  At every stage, there are individuals who NEVER recur so it "isn't just a matter of time" with your husband.  He may indeed be in the group that never recurs and he is done with melanoma forever.  When you read stories on BBs like these, you find mostly newly diagnosed or people actively fighting disease (or some long time hangers-on who stick around to give hope/info to others).  What you don't tend to see are the succes stories.  After a period of time, they move on having no reason to actively visit sites like this.

              Best wishes,

              Janner

              bdhf
              Participant

                Not to be a Debbie Downer but…I had Melanoma in situ in 2007.  Once treated, there is like a 95% cure rate leaving about a 5% chance it will come back.  Well, it came back with a vengance in Dec 2011 with a brain tumor.  So, not to say he is stuck worrying for the rest of his life, I would say though that you both have reason to be concerned that it may come back and to keep it in your mind but definitely in the periphery.  Nothing worse than living life frightened that the Grim Reeper is lurking!  Positive mental attitudes have a theraputic effect!  Live your lives but be aware it could return and be ready to kick some ass when it does!  We weren't even thinking that it would come back and here we are…but I won't give up!  Too much to live for!  

                Good luck!

                Brenda

                bdhf
                Participant

                  Not to be a Debbie Downer but…I had Melanoma in situ in 2007.  Once treated, there is like a 95% cure rate leaving about a 5% chance it will come back.  Well, it came back with a vengance in Dec 2011 with a brain tumor.  So, not to say he is stuck worrying for the rest of his life, I would say though that you both have reason to be concerned that it may come back and to keep it in your mind but definitely in the periphery.  Nothing worse than living life frightened that the Grim Reeper is lurking!  Positive mental attitudes have a theraputic effect!  Live your lives but be aware it could return and be ready to kick some ass when it does!  We weren't even thinking that it would come back and here we are…but I won't give up!  Too much to live for!  

                  Good luck!

                  Brenda

                  bdhf
                  Participant

                    Not to be a Debbie Downer but…I had Melanoma in situ in 2007.  Once treated, there is like a 95% cure rate leaving about a 5% chance it will come back.  Well, it came back with a vengance in Dec 2011 with a brain tumor.  So, not to say he is stuck worrying for the rest of his life, I would say though that you both have reason to be concerned that it may come back and to keep it in your mind but definitely in the periphery.  Nothing worse than living life frightened that the Grim Reeper is lurking!  Positive mental attitudes have a theraputic effect!  Live your lives but be aware it could return and be ready to kick some ass when it does!  We weren't even thinking that it would come back and here we are…but I won't give up!  Too much to live for!  

                    Good luck!

                    Brenda

                    TracyP
                    Participant

                      I think Brenda and Janner have both good points…points I fear and celebrate.  I have had three melanomas.  Part of me hopes that I am so vigilant now if another one comes I will catch it early.  I also know yes it could come back worse…but thats is a "could" and not something I should worry my life away on.  The best things we can do as melanoma warriors is to be vigilant and aware of our own bodies, be our own advocates, and support each other.

                      TracyP
                      Participant

                        I think Brenda and Janner have both good points…points I fear and celebrate.  I have had three melanomas.  Part of me hopes that I am so vigilant now if another one comes I will catch it early.  I also know yes it could come back worse…but thats is a "could" and not something I should worry my life away on.  The best things we can do as melanoma warriors is to be vigilant and aware of our own bodies, be our own advocates, and support each other.

                        TracyP
                        Participant

                          I think Brenda and Janner have both good points…points I fear and celebrate.  I have had three melanomas.  Part of me hopes that I am so vigilant now if another one comes I will catch it early.  I also know yes it could come back worse…but thats is a "could" and not something I should worry my life away on.  The best things we can do as melanoma warriors is to be vigilant and aware of our own bodies, be our own advocates, and support each other.

                          Gene_S
                          Participant

                            A lot of it depends on the original size of the removed tumor and

                            how much tissue around it was removed.

                            Best Wishes,

                            Gene

                            Gene_S
                            Participant

                              A lot of it depends on the original size of the removed tumor and

                              how much tissue around it was removed.

                              Best Wishes,

                              Gene

                              Gene_S
                              Participant

                                A lot of it depends on the original size of the removed tumor and

                                how much tissue around it was removed.

                                Best Wishes,

                                Gene

                                dodgedh2
                                Participant

                                  I agree with Brenda and Janner. With Melanoma, you just don't know. It is an unpredictable evil. I haven't written much since I initially found this board, but I can say that reading the stories of others who share their thoughts and trials certainly have helped me to cope. I was one of those who was diagnosed as Stage IV with met to the bone (sacrum). This June will make it 4 years since my surgery and I'm NED. My next scan is next week and then my followup with my oncologist. Everytime it gets close to a scan, the old feelings of anxiety come rolling back. I have experienced several "lumps", pains, aches, and mysterious swell ling which don't seem to have a specific cause (such as injury or illness). Hopefully, each of these will continue to be unrelated to my melanoma. I always used to say that it sucked to get older, but now I look at it as a blessing compared to the alternative. If you look at the survival rate of those of us at stage IV (which we are told to ignore), you would think that there are not many who survive past three years, however, on this board alone, you will see that there are many which have been stage IV for 5, 10, 20 years and longer. Best thing is to keep a close eye on the disease and continue to live ones life. Just like everyone else, there will be good days and bad. Just take them as they come and handle them as best can be. Hope that all continues to be well with yours. Always remember, there agree many here that will share their experiences and you'll always have someone to turn to. 

                                  dodgedh2
                                  Participant

                                    I agree with Brenda and Janner. With Melanoma, you just don't know. It is an unpredictable evil. I haven't written much since I initially found this board, but I can say that reading the stories of others who share their thoughts and trials certainly have helped me to cope. I was one of those who was diagnosed as Stage IV with met to the bone (sacrum). This June will make it 4 years since my surgery and I'm NED. My next scan is next week and then my followup with my oncologist. Everytime it gets close to a scan, the old feelings of anxiety come rolling back. I have experienced several "lumps", pains, aches, and mysterious swell ling which don't seem to have a specific cause (such as injury or illness). Hopefully, each of these will continue to be unrelated to my melanoma. I always used to say that it sucked to get older, but now I look at it as a blessing compared to the alternative. If you look at the survival rate of those of us at stage IV (which we are told to ignore), you would think that there are not many who survive past three years, however, on this board alone, you will see that there are many which have been stage IV for 5, 10, 20 years and longer. Best thing is to keep a close eye on the disease and continue to live ones life. Just like everyone else, there will be good days and bad. Just take them as they come and handle them as best can be. Hope that all continues to be well with yours. Always remember, there agree many here that will share their experiences and you'll always have someone to turn to. 

                                    dodgedh2
                                    Participant

                                      I agree with Brenda and Janner. With Melanoma, you just don't know. It is an unpredictable evil. I haven't written much since I initially found this board, but I can say that reading the stories of others who share their thoughts and trials certainly have helped me to cope. I was one of those who was diagnosed as Stage IV with met to the bone (sacrum). This June will make it 4 years since my surgery and I'm NED. My next scan is next week and then my followup with my oncologist. Everytime it gets close to a scan, the old feelings of anxiety come rolling back. I have experienced several "lumps", pains, aches, and mysterious swell ling which don't seem to have a specific cause (such as injury or illness). Hopefully, each of these will continue to be unrelated to my melanoma. I always used to say that it sucked to get older, but now I look at it as a blessing compared to the alternative. If you look at the survival rate of those of us at stage IV (which we are told to ignore), you would think that there are not many who survive past three years, however, on this board alone, you will see that there are many which have been stage IV for 5, 10, 20 years and longer. Best thing is to keep a close eye on the disease and continue to live ones life. Just like everyone else, there will be good days and bad. Just take them as they come and handle them as best can be. Hope that all continues to be well with yours. Always remember, there agree many here that will share their experiences and you'll always have someone to turn to. 

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